Since the Houston Rockets decided to go all in on the idea of small ball many questions have been raised; is it sustainable? How will they compete in the paint on both sides of the ball? ect
We all know Houston's style is to chuck up 3s, play quite fast and generally let James Harden try to exploit mismatches. But as they haven't managed to win a ring yet, they have doubled down on essentially trying to outscore opponents.
Clint Capela was officially traded to the Hawks on Feb. 5th but was inactive since the 31st Jan. This gives us a 17 game sample size where we can gain an idea of how the Rockets matchup. They went 11-6 which would amount to 53 wins over the course of an 82 game season.
Daryl Morey walks the thin line between genius and crazy, he's bought into a system which, if successful will change the game forever. If his reliance on advanced stats doesn't pay off he will be seen as someone who just couldn't get it done. I admire his desire to go head to head with the best and try to build rosters to compete.
Trading Capela summed up their approach to small ball. The Rockets are currently being outrebounded by 10 rebounds per game since the Capela trade and giving up a league high 12 offensive rebounds per game which is where the problems could really expose themselves.
It's worth noting that the last 3 NBA champs (Raptors, Warriors x2) were not elite rebounding teams. 2 were 17th in rebounding, with the '17 Warriors being 7th. None of these teams outrebounded their opponents by more than 1 rebound per game. Admittedly they had some great paint defenders in the form of Serge, Marc Gasol, KD and Dray but it proves that rebounding isn't a great measure when looking for a championship team. Also with 3 point shots being more prominent, rebounds tends to fall further meaning the prototypical centre who boxes out for rebounds will miss rebounding opportunities as rebounds now fall out of the paint.
. PJ Tucker is now the starting center and he's hit an impressive 37% of his 3's over his 3 years in Houston. Having your PF/C able to stretch the floor opens up the game which would either allow easier 3s or an open lane for Westbrook to drive. Either the defensive center steps out to guard PJ or he stays in the paint which could result in Houston finding an open shooter on the 3 point line. However, the small ball line up, on paper look like they will give up some easy buckets in the paint.
One shining light for the Rockets is the lack of dominant big men in the NBA. Not many teams have a power forward or center as their number #1 option so teams will likely have to change their game plan to fully maximise mismatches against the Rockets.
If the Rockets match up with the Jazz for example, we all know Gobert isn't their 1st option, he is 5th in fga. The Rockets could deal with this matchup as their weaknesses would not be fully exploited, and I cant see Quin Snyder changing his teams play style too much as it could cause chemistry issues. Team with dominant big men like the Lakers & Bucks would most likely be able to deal with he Rockets due to their switchability on defense and elite offensive forwards. However I think Houston could hang with most other teams.
As the old saying goes, defence wins championships and we all know Houston aren't elite on that end of the ball but I don't think we've ever seen a team who just purely focus on 1 side of the ball. (05 Pistons are the closest imo). Houston are capable of outscoring anyone and locking in on this playstyle may be smarter than sacrificing some offense to get a good, not great defense.
After trading Capela, I thought it was worth seeing how various line-ups fared and looking at pure numbers it seems like its paying off.
Although it's a small sample size, the 5 man line up of Harden, Russ, House, McLemore & PJ were outrebounded by 7 but outscored their opponents by 40 points. Since the Capela trade their most used 5 man line up of Harden, Russ, RoCo, House & PJ were only outrebounded by 2, while outscoring opponents by 12.
On base stats alone, Houston rank in the top 5 for steals per game, top 10 in blocks per game but they also allow some of the most points/fgm & fga against them. In all honesty the Rockets defense wasn't great with Capela so I haven't completely given up on them as they have proved they can be an elite team. Compared to last season they have a similar point differential (+41 in 2018/19 - +3.7 this season).
I don't think its worth dwelling or overthinking on Houston's defense too much, they do have some very good individual defenders (RoCo & PJ) while Westbrook and Harden can be solid on their day, so we know in stretches they can be a solid defensive team. No doubt, the loss of Capela impacts their defence but I am confident they can more than make up for it offensively by getting good quality shots.
I want this Rockets team to do well, I want them to be a generational team with a style of play that changes the game and if everything clicks I think they have the talent to go far but my gut feeling has always been that they will beat everyone in the west except the 2 LA teams. If somehow they dodge them and find themselves in the NBA Finals they would give their opponents a great series and could possibly win it all. The Bucks & Raps would most likely be the toughest test.
In Morey we trust
